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OK0NAG > SOLAR    03.10.11 15:03l 123 Lines 4796 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: GEOALERT SIDC
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2011 Oct 03 1259 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)                       #

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#


GEOALERT BRU276
UGEOA 30512 11003 1240/ 9930/
11032 21032 30032
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 03 Oct 2011 until 05 Oct 
2011
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Oct 2011  10CM FLUX: 131 / AP: 004
PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Oct 2011  10CM FLUX: 130 / AP: 013
PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Oct 2011  10CM FLUX: 129 / AP: 018
COMMENT: Early this morning, NOAA AR 1302 at the west limb produced a
C7.6 flare. C-flares are rather likely, while the probability for an
M-flare is below 50%. The Earth ward directed CME from Sept 30 (visible

in STEREO A/COR2 at 19:54UT) is rather slow according to a speed
estimate based on images from STEREO A/COR2: around 250 km/s. The CME of

Oct 01 (visible in STEREO A/COR2 at 09:544UT) is probably slightly
faster: 450 km/s. The CME of Oct 02 (visible in STEREO A/COR2 at
00:50UT) has an estimated speed of 500 km/s (based on STEREO A/COR2
images). These speed are rough estimates. The solar wind has a speed of

400 km/s at the moment. If the CME's of the past days would impact now,

they will be relatively geo-silent. A CME arrival is possible from
tomorrow onwards, the earliest. Unsettled to active conditions are
possible.



TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 073, BASED ON 11 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 11003 1240/ 02///
1//// 21310 3015/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania 
NOAA NOTE
02  1719  1723 1726 N09W56 M1.3 SF                                  82 
1302                     
END

UGEOR 30512 11003 1240/ 03/06 03108
10082 2//// 3//// 4622/ 50220 60018 46013 03100
10085 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50250 60017 42812 03100
10086 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50040 60003 41013 01000
10087 2//// 3//// 471// 50020 60002 11414 00000
10088 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60004 13417 00000
10091 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60003 23826 00000
10092 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60004 23332 00000
10093 2//// 3//// 4421/ 50080 60003 16324 00000
99999
USSPS 32404 02076 08922 85028 44614 41613 89017 41712 54409 90002 
10315 2/801 91002 13216 11503 92002 25325 1/801 93009 17823 21402 
USSPS 21305 02193 09442 98059 45113 54615 02023 41912 41311 03004 
41314 2/801 04003 11716 01204 05014 17225 31402 07001 23232 0/101 
USSPS 81202 03007 07022 76032 45413 57608 80024 42112 41306 81004 
40613 2/801 82002 11913 21302 84020 16824 21403 
USSPS 31405 03066 13442 82022 46013 24618 85025 42812 21317 86004 
41013 21303 87002 11414 1/902 88001 13417 01204 91001 23826 01203 
92001 23332 01204 93008 16324 23403 
UMAGF 30503 11003 1004/ 02060 1/022 23233 33400 
UMAGF 31523 11003 ///// 0200/ 1/015 22232 33344 
 
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

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