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OK0NAG > SOLAR    13.02.18 14:49l 127 Lines 4341 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: GEOALERT SIDC
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
To: solar@eu
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Date: Tue, 13 Feb 2018 12:30:17 GMT
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>

:Issued: 2018 Feb 13 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)                       #

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

GEOALERT BRU044
UGEOA 30512 80213 1230/ 9930/ 
11132 21132 30132 
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 13 Feb 2018 until 15 Feb 
2018
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Feb 2018  10CM FLUX: 079 / AP: 003
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Feb 2018  10CM FLUX: 079 / AP: 004
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Feb 2018  10CM FLUX: 078 / AP: 022
COMMENT: Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been low. No significant

flares have been recorded. Active Region (AR) 2699 (Mcintosh class:Dai;

Mag. type:Beta) has been most active, showing considerable flux emergence

and cancellation. The greater than 10MeV proton flux remained at background

levels over the past 24 hours. A halo CME was observed in the SOHO/LASCO 
C2
field of view at 01:25 UT yesterday (2018-Feb-12). The CME has a projected

speed of approximately 509 km/s and is anticipated to reach the Earth on

15-Feb-2018 at approximately 12:00 UT. Over the next 24 hours flaring
activity is expected to be at the C-class level with a medium probability

of M-class flares.
The solar wind speed has decreased from around 325 to 300 km/s over the

past 24 hours. The total magnetic field strength has remained around 5 
nT.
The Bz component was largely positive, fluctuating between -5 and +5 nT.

Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 0-2 (NOAA) and local K index

0-2 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. A large positive polarity coronal

hole just passed the central meridian and may enhance solar wind speeds 
at
Earth in a couple of days. The above mentioned halo CME should reach the

Earth around 15-Feb-2018 at approximately 12:00 UT and may also enhance

solar wind conditions. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet 
to
unsettled.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 026, BASED ON 18 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 80213 1230/ 12/// 
10021 20790 3004/ 4//// 80001 90220 
99999

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 

NONE
END

UGEOR 30512 80213 1230/ 12/09 13101 
10072 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50220 60011 31707 15100 
99999
USSPS 32404 11147 02432 05023 30908 27514
UMAGF 30503 80213 1004/ 12063 1/006 21110 32101
UMAGF 31523 80213 0000/ 12002 1/004 20111 31031

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