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OK0NAG > SOLAR    15.07.10 00:11l 227 Lines 6940 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: 14 Jul 2010 22:02:09 +0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2010 Jul 14 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2010

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z

to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 1087 (N20E08) produced

two C-class events.  The first was a C1 flare at 14/1230Z and the

second was a C3 flare at 14/2047Z.  1087 is a Dso group with a

beta-gamma magnetic configuration and has shown little change in

areal coverage and spot number during the last 24 hours.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very

low to low.  There is a slight chance for an  isolated M-class event

from Region 1087.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.  The solar wind monitor on

the ACE spacecraft indicated a sector boundary crossing into a

positive sector at approximately 14/0900Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be unsettled with a chance for isolated active periods

on day one (15 July) due to a coronal hole high speed stream.  Quiet

conditions are expected to return on days two and three (16-17

July).

III.  Event Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul

Class M    10/10/10

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       Green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           14 Jul 078

Predicted   15 Jul-17 Jul  078/078/078

90 Day Mean        14 Jul 074

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul  001/003

Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul  006/006

Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul  008/008-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                25/05/05

Minor storm           05/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                30/05/05

Minor storm           10/01/01

Major-severe storm    05/01/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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