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OK0NAG > SOLAR    01.02.11 11:56l 107 Lines 4044 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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:Issued: 2011 Feb 01 0950 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/ri
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# MONTHLY REPORT ON THE INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMBER                 #

# from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)                                        #

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#


Provisional International monthly mean Sunspot Number for
January 2011 : 19.0 (nineteen point zero)

Maximum : 37 on 1 // Minimum : 0 on 14

Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for January 2011 : 

      1.. 37    6.. 19   11.. 17   16.. 14   21.. 23   26.. 17   31.. 14

      2.. 33    7.. 24   12.. 15   17.. 19   22.. 22   27.. 14
      3.. 32    8.. 17   13..  9   18.. 22   23.. 23   28..  9
      4.. 33    9.. 22   14..  0   19.. 18   24.. 20   29.. 10
      5.. 25   10.. 18   15..  8   20.. 20   25.. 21   30.. 13

66 cooperating stations on February 1, 09 UT

Predictions of the monthly smoothed Sunspot Number using the last
provisional value, calculated for July 2010 :  16.8 (+-5%)

            SM    CM                 SM    CM                 SM    CM 
    

2010 Aug    17    21     2011 Feb    29    53     2011 Aug    45    79

     Sep    18    27          Mar    31    57          Sep    48    82

     Oct    20    33          Apr    34    61          Oct    51    85

     Nov    22    38          May    37    66          Nov    54    88

     Dec    24    43          Jun    40    70          Dec    57    91

2011 Jan    27    48          Jul    42    74     2012 Jan    59    93


SM : SIDC classical method : based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's
standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to
35% (last month)
CM : Combined method : the combined method is a regression technique
coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard
curves, due to K. Denkmayr.
ref. : K. Denkmayr, P. Cugnon, 1997 : "About Sunspot Number Medium-Term

Predictions", in "Solar-Terrestrial Prediction Workshop V", eds.
G. Heckman et al., Hiraiso Solar Terrestrial Research Center, Japan, 103

 
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# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                       #

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