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OK0NAG > SOLAR    11.02.11 00:02l 215 Lines 7045 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2011 Feb 10 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 041 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z

to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1153 produced a few

B-class and C-class events early in the period before rotating off

the disk. Region 1156 (S14E09) remained stable and quiet.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very

low to low over the next 3 days (11-13 February).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated period of

unsettled conditions between 10/06Z and 10/09Z at mid latitudes. The

greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high

levels throughout the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be mostly quiet for the next 3 days (11-13 February).

III.  Event Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       Green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           10 Feb 091

Predicted   11 Feb-13 Feb  090/090/090

90 Day Mean        10 Feb 084

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb  001/002

Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb  001/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb  005/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                20/20/20

Minor storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                20/20/20

Minor storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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