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OK0NAG > SOLAR    28.02.11 00:05l 227 Lines 7487 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2011 Feb 27 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 058 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z

to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. 

Region 1164 (N27E46) produced several C-class events, the largest of

which was a C4/Sf observed at 27/0355Z. A possible filament eruption

around N15E70 was visible on SDO/AIA imagery at approximately

27/0930Z. An associated CME was observed on LASCO C2 at 27/1048Z but

is not expected to be geoeffective.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low

for the next three days (28 February - 02 March). A chance for

M-class activity exists from Region 1164.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be quiet on day one (28 February). Quiet to unsettled

conditions are expected for days two and three (01-02 March) due to

the effects of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.

III.  Event Probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar

Class M    35/35/35

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       Green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           27 Feb 090

Predicted   28 Feb-02 Mar  090/090/090

90 Day Mean        27 Feb 087

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb  002/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb  002/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar  005/005-008/010-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                05/20/20

Minor storm           01/10/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/25/25

Minor storm           01/10/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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