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OK0NAG > SOLAR    02.03.11 00:05l 267 Lines 8707 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2011 Mar 01 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 060 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z

to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Occasional C-class x-ray

flares occurred throughout the period, the largest of which was a

C6/Sf at 01/0413Z from Region 1164 (N25E19).  This region grew in

size and magnetic complexity, ending the period as an Ekc type with

Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic characteristics.  The remaining regions

were quiescent.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low,

with an increasing chance for an M-class x-ray flare from Region

1164.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 01/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm activity

levels during the period.  Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft

began to rise from 310 km/s at approximately 01/0500Z and ended the

period near 500 km/s.  The Bz component of the interplanetary

magnetic field turned south coincident with the increase in solar

wind speed, temperature, and density.  These events suggest the

arrival of a corotating interaction region between 01/05-12Z in

advance of a coronal hole high speed stream.  Bz  averaged -10 nT

for several hours, bringing two periods of minor storm levels at

middle latitudes.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be predominantly unsettled with a chance for active

conditions over the next three days (2-4 March).  A slight chance

for isolated minor storm periods exists on days one and two (2-3

March).

III.  Event Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar

Class M    35/35/35

Class X    05/05/05

Proton     05/05/05

PCAF       Green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           01 Mar 111

Predicted   02 Mar-04 Mar  110/110/110

90 Day Mean        01 Mar 088

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb  002/003

Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar  019/025

Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar  015/015-015/015-012/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                30/30/20

Minor storm           15/15/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                40/40/30

Minor storm           20/20/15

Major-severe storm    05/05/05



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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