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OK0NAG > SOLAR    14.03.11 00:03l 255 Lines 8402 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2011 Mar 13 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 072 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z

to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Regions 1166 (N10W65) and 1169

(N20W34) have both produced C-class events.  The daily consensus has

Region 1166 as decreased in both white light areal coverage and

sunspot count with a Ekc type spot group and a beta-gamma magnetic

classification.  Region 1169 has maintained its area and spot count

and is a simple beta magnetic classification with a Cro type spot

group.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low

with a chance for an M-class event.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.  The ACE spacecraft

observed solar wind speeds during the past 24 hours averaging around

550 km/s with the interplanetary magnetic field Bz fluctuating

between -4/+5 nT.  Observations suggest that the earth is still

under the influence of the coronal hole high speed stream. The

greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached

high levels during the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for isolated active

levels for day one (14 March).  Days two and three (15-16 March) are

expected to be predominately quiet as the effects from the coronal

hole high speed stream subside.

III.  Event Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar

Class M    40/20/20

Class X    05/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           13 Mar 113

Predicted   14 Mar-16 Mar  110/110/110

90 Day Mean        13 Mar 093

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar  010/013

Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar  005/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar  008/008-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                25/05/05

Minor storm           05/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                30/05/05

Minor storm           10/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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