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OK0NAG > SOLAR    04.09.11 00:06l 297 Lines 9867 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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----boundary_149567_56540831-efbf-4912-9a9a-a7a23d490e81
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2011 Sep 03 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z

to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels due to several C-class

events observed during the period. As it approached the west limb,

Region 1280 (N12W78) produced three C-class flares, the largest a

C2/Sf at 03/1736Z. Region 1281 (S19W10) produced a C2/Sf at

03/0756Z. Region 1282 (N23W52) indicated decay in its intermediate

spots, but developed a delta magnetic structure in the large leader

spot. Two new regions were numbered during the period. New Region

1286 (N20W57) rapidly emerged as an eight spot D-type group and

produced a C1 x-ray event at 03/1846Z. New Region 1287 (S30E64)

rotated onto the disk as a three spot C-type group. All remaining

regions were quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected

during the period.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low

for the next three days (04 - 06 September) with a slight chance for

M-class activity.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an

isolated active period observed at Boulder between 03/0900Z - 1200Z.

At about 03/0100Z, observations from the ACE spacecraft indicated an

increase in temperature, density and wind speed. These increases,

coupled with a brief period of southward Bz to -12nT and an increase

in Bt to 13nT, were indicative of a co-rotating interaction region

in advance of a coronal hole high speed stream.  During the period,

wind speed increased from about 275 km/s to near 425 km/s while Bz

generally fluctuated between +/- 5 nT.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with a chance for

isolated active periods, on day one (04 September) as the coronal

hole high speed stream (CH HSS) persists. Days two and three (05 -

06 September) will see a return to mostly quiet levels as the CH HSS

moves out of a geoeffective position.

III.  Event Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep

Class M    15/15/15

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       Green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           03 Sep 119

Predicted   04 Sep-06 Sep  120/120/115

90 Day Mean        03 Sep 097

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep  001/003

Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep  011/011

Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep  008/008-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                20/15/10

Minor storm           05/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                25/20/15

Minor storm           10/05/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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