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OK0NAG > SOLAR    01.10.11 11:42l 107 Lines 4049 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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:Issued: 2011 Oct 01 0938 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/ri
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# MONTHLY REPORT ON THE INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMBER                 #

# from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)                                        #

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#


Provisional International monthly mean Sunspot Number for
September 2011 : 78.0 (seventy-eight point zero)

Maximum : 124 on 15, 16 // Minimum : 35 on 8

Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for September 2011 : 

      1.. 85    6.. 58   11.. 61   16..124   21.. 70   26.. 73
      2.. 88    7.. 47   12.. 90   17..104   22.. 71   27.. 67
      3.. 91    8.. 35   13.. 94   18.. 93   23.. 59   28.. 71
      4.. 68    9.. 47   14..110   19.. 92   24.. 75   29.. 83
      5.. 74   10.. 52   15..124   20.. 80   25.. 79   30.. 75

74 cooperating stations on October 1, 10 UT

Predictions of the monthly smoothed Sunspot Number using the last
provisional value, calculated for March 2011 :  36.9 (+-5%)

            SM    CM                 SM    CM                 SM    CM 
    

2011 Apr    40    40     2011 Oct    68    70     2012 Apr   104   102

     May    45    45          Nov    73    76          May   112   105

     Jun    49    49          Dec    78    81          Jun   120   107

     Jul    54    54     2012 Jan    83    86          Jul   127   109

     Aug    59    59          Feb    89    91          Aug   134   111

     Sep    63    65          Mar    96    97          Sep   140   112


SM : SIDC classical method : based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's
standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to
35% (last month)
CM : Combined method : the combined method is a regression technique
coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard
curves, due to K. Denkmayr.
ref. : K. Denkmayr, P. Cugnon, 1997 : "About Sunspot Number Medium-Term

Predictions", in "Solar-Terrestrial Prediction Workshop V", eds.
G. Heckman et al., Hiraiso Solar Terrestrial Research Center, Japan, 103


 
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# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                       #

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