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OK0NAG > SOLAR    13.10.11 00:04l 241 Lines 8047 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2011 Oct 12 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z

to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24

hours. Two new regions were numbered today, Region 1318 (N21W03) and

Region 1319 (N08E42). Since the emergence of Region 1319, in the

vicinity of Region 1314 (N25E33), solar activity has increased with

both regions producing low level C-class events.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at

low levels with a chance for M-class events for the next three days

(13-15 October).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the

past 24 hours. Solar wind signatures, as measured by the ACE

spacecraft, indicated the arrival of a weak coronal hole high speed

stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds peaked around 450 km/s but have

since decreased to nominal levels, around 400 km/s.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to remain at predominantly quiet levels for the next two

days (13-14 October). Late on day three (15 October), quiet to

unsettled levels are forecast due to the arrival of another CH HSS.

III.  Event Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct

Class M    30/30/30

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           12 Oct 134

Predicted   13 Oct-15 Oct  135/135/135

90 Day Mean        12 Oct 116

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct  003/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct  005/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct  005/005-005/005-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                05/05/20

Minor storm           01/01/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                10/10/30

Minor storm           01/01/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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