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OK0NAG > SOLAR    17.10.11 02:00l 250 Lines 8398 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2011 Oct 16 2355 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

::::::::::CORRECTED COPY::::::::::

SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z

to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1319 (N11W13)  produced

the most activity during the period, including a C6 x-ray event at

16/1514Z as well as numerous other low level C-class events. Region

1317 (S26E01) produced a slow rise C1/Sf flare at 16/1355Z with

associated type II and type IV radio sweeps shortly after. The

estimated Type II speed was 618 km/s. No partial or full halo

signature indicating an Earth directed CME has been observed by SOHO

LASCO, nor was a feature ascertainable on STEREO coronagraph imagery

at the time of this report.  Please note that there was an error on 

the location of Region 1321 on the Solar Region Summary issued at 0030Z 
on 16 October.  The actual location of Region 1321 was S14E50.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low

with a chance for an M-class flare over the next 3 days (17-19

October).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated unsettled

period from 16/03-06Z due to weak CH HSS effects.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be mostly quiet for the next 3 days (17-19 October) as

weak CH HSS effects continue to wane.

III.  Event Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct

Class M    40/40/40

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           16 Oct 151

Predicted   17 Oct-19 Oct  150/150/150

90 Day Mean        16 Oct 118

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct  004/008

Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct  005/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct  005/008-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                20/20/20

Minor storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                20/20/20

Minor storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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