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OK0NAG > SOLAR    03.11.11 00:05l 242 Lines 8124 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2011 Nov 02 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z

to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1339 (N18E63) produced

occasional C-class flares, the largest of which was a C7/Sf at

02/1721Z. It rotated more fully into view as a Dkc/beta-gamma group.

No significant changes were observed in Region 1339, but analysis

was hampered by east limb proximity. No significant changes

occurred in the remaining regions.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low

through the period (03 - 05 November) with a chance for an M-class

flare from Region 1339.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels with

minor to major storm periods detected at high latitudes due to

persistent effects from a coronal transient.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is

expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the period (03 -

05 November) with a chance for active levels on 05 November due to a

coronal hole high-speed stream. The CME mentioned in yesterday's

report is expected to arrive at Earth early on 04 November, but is

not expected to significantly disturb the field.

III.  Event Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov

Class M    50/50/50

Class X    05/05/05

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       Green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           02 Nov 154

Predicted   03 Nov-05 Nov  160/165/165

90 Day Mean        02 Nov 125

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov  014/021

Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Nov  012/015

Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov  007/008-008/010-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                10/15/20

Minor storm           01/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/20/25

Minor storm           01/10/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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