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OK0NAG > SOLAR    08.11.11 00:05l 231 Lines 7747 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2011 Nov 07 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z

to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Only low to mid-level C-class

activity was observed from both Regions 1338 (S13W12) and 1339

(N18E05). Both regions exhibited some growth in area and spot count

with Region 1338 developing a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration.

There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed during the period.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be

moderate during the period (08 - 10 November) with a slight chance

for high activity (M5 or higher) from Region 1339. There is also a

slight chance for a proton flare from this region during the period.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind

speeds ranged between 300 to 375 km/s while the Bz component of the

interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 5 nT.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be at quiet levels during the period (08 - 10 November).

III.  Event Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov

Class M    70/70/70

Class X    10/10/10

Proton     10/10/10

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           07 Nov 182

Predicted   08 Nov-10 Nov  180/180/180

90 Day Mean        07 Nov 129

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov  003/003

Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov  003/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov  005/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                05/05/05

Minor storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                05/05/05

Minor storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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