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OK0NAG > SOLAR    26.04.12 00:02l 280 Lines 9463 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2012 Apr 25 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 116 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Apr 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z

to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1459 (S16W65)

produced a C1 x-ray event at 25/0224Z while Region 1460 (N15W81)

produced a C3/Sf at 25/1215Z. Region 1465 (S17W26) indicated

consolidation in both its leader and trailer spots. The region

appeared to have lost its gamma and delta magnetic configuration,

but still maintained an east to west oriented inversion line. No

discernible changes were noted in the remaining regions. No

Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain

at low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next

three days (26 - 28 April).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm conditions

with an isolated high latitude severe storm period observed during

25/0600Z - 0900Z. This activity was due to coronal hole high speed

stream affects (CH HSS). Over the past 24 hours, solar wind

velocities gradually increased from about 600 km/s to near 800 km/s.

Total field strength (Bt) varied between 5 to 12 nT while the Bz

component of the interplanetary magnetic field remained mostly south

from -4 to -10 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at

geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be at quiet to active levels with isolated minor storm

periods on day one (26 April) as the 23 April CME is expected to

become geoeffective. Quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active

periods are expected on day two (27 April) as effects of the CME

wane. By day three (28 April), mostly quiet conditions are expected.

III.  Event Probabilities 26 Apr-28 Apr

Class M    20/20/20

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           25 Apr 127

Predicted   26 Apr-28 Apr  125/120/120

90 Day Mean        25 Apr 112

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 24 Apr  030/043

Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Apr  018/022

Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr  017/025-011/015-004/006

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Apr-28 Apr

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                50/25/10

Minor storm           20/10/01

Major-severe storm    10/05/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                40/30/10

Minor storm           30/15/01

Major-severe storm    15/10/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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