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OK0NAG > SOLAR    13.05.12 00:02l 252 Lines 8454 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2012 May 12 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z

to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24

hours.  Region 1476 (N11W18) continues to be the source region for a

majority of the flares, producing nine C-class flares, the largest

of which was a C3 that occurred at 11/2302Z.  This region has shown

some signs of decay, but maintains an Fkc/beta-gamma-delta

configuration.  A full halo CME was observed on LASCO C2 imagery at

12/0000Z.  Preliminary analysis indicated the edge of the CME may

skirt the earth, but no major impacts are expected.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at

low to moderate levels with isolated M-class flares for the next

three days (13-15 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the

past 24 hours with periods of active levels at high latitudes . The

greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high

levels throughout the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for day one (13 May),

then fall to quiet levels on day two (14 May).  Day three is

expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active

levels due to the potential glancing blow from today's CME.

III.  Event Probabilities 13 May-15 May

Class M    65/65/65

Class X    15/15/15

Proton     10/10/10

PCAF       Green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           12 May 130

Predicted   13 May-15 May  130/130/130

90 Day Mean        12 May 113

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 11 May  010/013

Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May  008/009

Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May  007/008-006/005-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May-15 May

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                10/05/20

Minor storm           01/01/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/10/30

Minor storm           05/01/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/05



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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